Climate Shapes Value
Chris Isidore
| 29-12-2025

· News team
Hey Lykkers. Let’s talk about a shift that’s already underway—one that’s quieter than a hurricane but just as powerful.
It’s not about a sudden mass exodus; it’s about the steady, gradual movement of people away from places becoming too hot, too wet, or too risky, and toward places perceived as safer.
This is climate migration, and it’s about to redraw the map of real estate value in our lifetimes.
The "Push" and "Pull" of a Changing Climate
This migration isn't science fiction. We’re seeing the early signals: the family in California selling after the third wildfire scare, the retiree in Miami finally tired of flood insurance premiums doubling, the tech worker choosing a city in Texas over one in the Southwest due to concerns over water security.
The "Push" Factors are clear:
Sea-Level Rise & Coastal Flooding: Not just inundation, but "sunny day flooding" and ferocious storm surges are making coastal living more expensive and uncertain.
Extreme Heat & Drought: The "Sun Belt" boom could face a reckoning as chronic water shortages and unbearable heatwaves—such as the record-setting 31-day streak over 110°F recently observed in a major Southwestern metro—affect livability, strain power grids, and threaten long-term infrastructure.
Intensified Storms & Wildfires: Rebuilding cycles are growing shorter, and insurance is becoming unaffordable or simply unavailable. “This work highlights the degree to which the changing climate is directly impacting the larger economy through shifts in the insurance market and home devaluation,” said Dr. Jeremy Porter, Head of Climate Implications Research at the First Street Foundation.
The "Pull" Factors are emerging:
People are being drawn to regions with more climate resilience—areas with stable water supplies, lower disaster risk, and moderate temperatures. Think the "Great Lakes Region," the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Appalachian foothills. These areas are now being dubbed "climate havens."
The Real Estate Reckoning: Winners, Losers, and New Rules
This migration won't create ghost towns overnight, but it will apply relentless pressure that reshapes markets over decades.
1. The "Climate Discount" and the "Resilience Premium"
We'll see a growing value gap. Properties in high-risk zones, even if beautiful today, may see stagnating or declining values as insurance costs soar and financing becomes harder to get.
Conversely, homes in resilient areas—those with secure water, lower fire risk, and good infrastructure—could command a growing "climate resilience premium."
2. The Infrastructure Strain in "Haven" Markets
Imagine what happens if thousands more people move to a city like Duluth, Minnesota, or Buffalo, New York. Demand will surge for housing, water systems, and the electrical grid. This will likely drive up prices and create new challenges. The very resilience that attracts people could be strained.
Smart investment will flow to towns and cities that are proactively upgrading their infrastructure for a larger, climate-driven population.
3. A New Layer of Due Diligence
For buyers, sellers, and investors, climate risk will become a standard part of the spreadsheet. Tools like flood maps, wildfire risk scores (like First Street's), and water stress ratings will be as routinely checked as school districts and commute times. Ignoring them will be seen as financially irresponsible.
What This Means for You, Right Now
Whether you're buying, selling, or investing, the climate lens is now non-negotiable.
For Buyers & Homeowners: Look beyond the 30-year mortgage. Ask: What is the 30-year climate forecast for this property? Check its flood history (not just FEMA maps), fire risk, and water source reliability. Factor in insurance costs over the long term.
For Investors & Developers: The game is shifting. There will be massive opportunity in building and retrofitting housing in resilient regions, in climate-adaptive infrastructure, and in solutions for water conservation and renewable energy. The era of investing purely on historical patterns is over.
For Communities: Proactive planning is key. "Haven" cities that invest in smart growth, green infrastructure, and affordability will thrive. Those that don't may see their newfound popularity become a burden.
Lykkers, climate migration is more of a slow tide than a sudden wave. But it is rising. In real estate, the old rules are being rewritten by a warming planet. The most valuable asset you can own might just be a home in a place that’s ready for the future. It’s time to look at the map—and the forecast—with new eyes.